Nexi Stock Plummets 20% on Weak Q4 and Cautious Outlook

Nexi shares cratered to a record low after disappointing fourth-quarter results and a conservative three-year forecast. The Italian payments processor reported €942.5 million in revenue, missing estimates by 1%, while EBITDA of €508.6 million fell 2% short of expectations. Management warned of persistent headwinds from merchant-book integrations through 2026.

The company's guidance suggests flat revenue growth in 2026, mirroring 2025's anemic 2.1% increase. Analysts anticipate earnings downgrades as Nexi's plan to return €1.1 billion to shareholders through 2028 fails to offset concerns about stagnant growth. CEO Paolo Bertoluzzo acknowledged investor skepticism during Milan meetings, cutting short his moon-shot rhetoric mid-sentence.

While some view the selloff as overdone, the market's reaction underscores growing impatience with fintech players struggling to maintain growth trajectories. Nexi's promise of mid-single-digit revenue recovery by 2028 now serves as the bull case for a company trading at crisis valuations.